What would be the main consequences for a country leaving the WTO?
Trump threatened to leave the WTO a while back. (This might be understated, but I won't search how many times he may have said that.)
What I want to ask is: what would be the consequences for a country, big or small, if it just left the WTO? I assume (economic) size might make a difference in outcomes, although I could be wrong on this.
As far as I know there aren't any concrete example of countries who left, but if I'm somehow wrong on this (too), then we could have a concrete example of the consequences. If not, then perhaps we'd have to rely on some published analyses of such WTO-exit scenarios for an answer.
wto
asked 6 hours ago
FizzFizz
12.8k12981
add a comment |
Trump threatened to leave the WTO a while back. (This might be understated, but I won't search how many times he may have said that.)
What I want to ask is: what would be the consequences for a country, big or small, if it just left the WTO? I assume (economic) size might make a difference in outcomes, although I could be wrong on this.
As far as I know there aren't any concrete example of countries who left, but if I'm somehow wrong on this (too), then we could have a concrete example of the consequences. If not, then perhaps we'd have to rely on some published analyses of such WTO-exit scenarios for an answer.
wto
asked 6 hours ago
FizzFizz
12.8k12981
1
@JJJ: I don't know. Is there an economic shock effect for leaving, for instance? It's part of the question.
– Fizz
6 hours ago
add a comment |
Trump threatened to leave the WTO a while back. (This might be understated, but I won't search how many times he may have said that.)
What I want to ask is: what would be the consequences for a country, big or small, if it just left the WTO? I assume (economic) size might make a difference in outcomes, although I could be wrong on this.
As far as I know there aren't any concrete example of countries who left, but if I'm somehow wrong on this (too), then we could have a concrete example of the consequences. If not, then perhaps we'd have to rely on some published analyses of such WTO-exit scenarios for an answer.
wto
asked 6 hours ago
FizzFizz
12.8k12981
Trump threatened to leave the WTO a while back. (This might be understated, but I won't search how many times he may have said that.)
What I want to ask is: what would be the consequences for a country, big or small, if it just left the WTO? I assume (economic) size might make a difference in outcomes, although I could be wrong on this.
As far as I know there aren't any concrete example of countries who left, but if I'm somehow wrong on this (too), then we could have a concrete example of the consequences. If not, then perhaps we'd have to rely on some published analyses of such WTO-exit scenarios for an answer.
wto
wto
asked 6 hours ago
FizzFizz
12.8k12981
asked 6 hours ago
FizzFizz
12.8k12981
asked 6 hours ago
FizzFizz
12.8k12981
asked 6 hours ago
FizzFizz
12.8k12981
asked 6 hours ago
FizzFizz
12.8k12981
12.8k12981
1
@JJJ: I don't know. Is there an economic shock effect for leaving, for instance? It's part of the question.
– Fizz
6 hours ago
add a comment |
1
@JJJ: I don't know. Is there an economic shock effect for leaving, for instance? It's part of the question.
– Fizz
6 hours ago
1
1
@JJJ: I don't know. Is there an economic shock effect for leaving, for instance? It's part of the question.
– Fizz
6 hours ago
@JJJ: I don't know. Is there an economic shock effect for leaving, for instance? It's part of the question.
– Fizz
6 hours ago
add a comment |
1 Answer
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One way to try to answer this is to look at the benefits of the WTO. The main two are Most Favored Nation and National Treatment:
Most Favored Nation basically says that if you lower a trade barrier for one nation you have to do the same for the others.
National Treatment basically means that you can't discriminate between locally produced goods and foreign goods. I'm not privy with the details but I'd spitball this is related to not favoring local businesses in government contracts, or at least not in broad daylight.
Conversely, if you were to leave the WTO, it would mean that your existing trading partners can now:
Lower trade barriers with other WTO members without lowering them for you; and increase trade barriers on you.
Favor their own local producers, and those of other WTO members, in lieu of yours.
A third benefit that you'd lose is the well oiled dispute resolution mechanism. Going forward you'd need to go negotiate arbitration clauses and put language to that effect in each trade treaty. Which I would imagine is not a big deal in practice. It would probably carry less predictable outcomes, but at the same time it could end up benefitting you on average if you're the 800 pound gorilla in the room.
A fourth benefit might also be that WTO members don't seem to go to war with one another very often. (They do impose sanctions on each other from time to time, though -- e.g. Russia.)
As to what would be the practical benefit for any country, in terms of economic damage, it would depend on the country and it's frankly anyone's guess.
answered 5 hours ago
Denis de BernardyDenis de Bernardy
13.9k33860
add a comment |
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1 Answer
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1 Answer
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oldest
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One way to try to answer this is to look at the benefits of the WTO. The main two are Most Favored Nation and National Treatment:
Most Favored Nation basically says that if you lower a trade barrier for one nation you have to do the same for the others.
National Treatment basically means that you can't discriminate between locally produced goods and foreign goods. I'm not privy with the details but I'd spitball this is related to not favoring local businesses in government contracts, or at least not in broad daylight.
Conversely, if you were to leave the WTO, it would mean that your existing trading partners can now:
Lower trade barriers with other WTO members without lowering them for you; and increase trade barriers on you.
Favor their own local producers, and those of other WTO members, in lieu of yours.
A third benefit that you'd lose is the well oiled dispute resolution mechanism. Going forward you'd need to go negotiate arbitration clauses and put language to that effect in each trade treaty. Which I would imagine is not a big deal in practice. It would probably carry less predictable outcomes, but at the same time it could end up benefitting you on average if you're the 800 pound gorilla in the room.
A fourth benefit might also be that WTO members don't seem to go to war with one another very often. (They do impose sanctions on each other from time to time, though -- e.g. Russia.)
As to what would be the practical benefit for any country, in terms of economic damage, it would depend on the country and it's frankly anyone's guess.
answered 5 hours ago
Denis de BernardyDenis de Bernardy
13.9k33860
add a comment |
One way to try to answer this is to look at the benefits of the WTO. The main two are Most Favored Nation and National Treatment:
Most Favored Nation basically says that if you lower a trade barrier for one nation you have to do the same for the others.
National Treatment basically means that you can't discriminate between locally produced goods and foreign goods. I'm not privy with the details but I'd spitball this is related to not favoring local businesses in government contracts, or at least not in broad daylight.
Conversely, if you were to leave the WTO, it would mean that your existing trading partners can now:
Lower trade barriers with other WTO members without lowering them for you; and increase trade barriers on you.
Favor their own local producers, and those of other WTO members, in lieu of yours.
A third benefit that you'd lose is the well oiled dispute resolution mechanism. Going forward you'd need to go negotiate arbitration clauses and put language to that effect in each trade treaty. Which I would imagine is not a big deal in practice. It would probably carry less predictable outcomes, but at the same time it could end up benefitting you on average if you're the 800 pound gorilla in the room.
A fourth benefit might also be that WTO members don't seem to go to war with one another very often. (They do impose sanctions on each other from time to time, though -- e.g. Russia.)
As to what would be the practical benefit for any country, in terms of economic damage, it would depend on the country and it's frankly anyone's guess.
answered 5 hours ago
Denis de BernardyDenis de Bernardy
13.9k33860
add a comment |
One way to try to answer this is to look at the benefits of the WTO. The main two are Most Favored Nation and National Treatment:
Most Favored Nation basically says that if you lower a trade barrier for one nation you have to do the same for the others.
National Treatment basically means that you can't discriminate between locally produced goods and foreign goods. I'm not privy with the details but I'd spitball this is related to not favoring local businesses in government contracts, or at least not in broad daylight.
Conversely, if you were to leave the WTO, it would mean that your existing trading partners can now:
Lower trade barriers with other WTO members without lowering them for you; and increase trade barriers on you.
Favor their own local producers, and those of other WTO members, in lieu of yours.
A third benefit that you'd lose is the well oiled dispute resolution mechanism. Going forward you'd need to go negotiate arbitration clauses and put language to that effect in each trade treaty. Which I would imagine is not a big deal in practice. It would probably carry less predictable outcomes, but at the same time it could end up benefitting you on average if you're the 800 pound gorilla in the room.
A fourth benefit might also be that WTO members don't seem to go to war with one another very often. (They do impose sanctions on each other from time to time, though -- e.g. Russia.)
As to what would be the practical benefit for any country, in terms of economic damage, it would depend on the country and it's frankly anyone's guess.
answered 5 hours ago
Denis de BernardyDenis de Bernardy
13.9k33860
One way to try to answer this is to look at the benefits of the WTO. The main two are Most Favored Nation and National Treatment:
Most Favored Nation basically says that if you lower a trade barrier for one nation you have to do the same for the others.
National Treatment basically means that you can't discriminate between locally produced goods and foreign goods. I'm not privy with the details but I'd spitball this is related to not favoring local businesses in government contracts, or at least not in broad daylight.
Conversely, if you were to leave the WTO, it would mean that your existing trading partners can now:
Lower trade barriers with other WTO members without lowering them for you; and increase trade barriers on you.
Favor their own local producers, and those of other WTO members, in lieu of yours.
A third benefit that you'd lose is the well oiled dispute resolution mechanism. Going forward you'd need to go negotiate arbitration clauses and put language to that effect in each trade treaty. Which I would imagine is not a big deal in practice. It would probably carry less predictable outcomes, but at the same time it could end up benefitting you on average if you're the 800 pound gorilla in the room.
A fourth benefit might also be that WTO members don't seem to go to war with one another very often. (They do impose sanctions on each other from time to time, though -- e.g. Russia.)
As to what would be the practical benefit for any country, in terms of economic damage, it would depend on the country and it's frankly anyone's guess.
answered 5 hours ago
Denis de BernardyDenis de Bernardy
13.9k33860
edited 5 hours ago
answered 5 hours ago
Denis de BernardyDenis de Bernardy
13.9k33860
answered 5 hours ago
Denis de BernardyDenis de Bernardy
13.9k33860
answered 5 hours ago
Denis de BernardyDenis de Bernardy
13.9k33860
13.9k33860
add a comment |
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@JJJ: I don't know. Is there an economic shock effect for leaving, for instance? It's part of the question.
– Fizz
6 hours ago